MatthewGriffinCashiaFirstPaper 2 - 26 Oct 2012 - Main.EbenMoglen
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Facebook: $38/share, $117/user | | At the time of its IPO, Facebook was valued at $100 billion. This resulted in an offering price of $38/share. After building financial models and compiling comparable company analyses I was unable to come anywhere close to such a valuation. Nor has management – i.e. Zuckerberg – made any satisfactory projections as to where growth will come from. So why have the gurus of Wall Street deemed this medium for social interaction to be of such worth? | |
> > | Why are we assuming that
share prices under these circumstances have something to do with
fundamental value? | | Let’s take a quick look at the facts. According to its S-1, Facebook had 850 million monthly active users at the end of 2011. With annual revenue of $3.7 billion, this equates to an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $4.35. ARPU and Facebook’s IPO price are constantly being flaunted and discussed by Zuckerberg and the media; however, neither Zuckerberg nor the media ever mention an even more important number: $117. What does this $117 represent? Well, based on Facebook’s valuation, Zuckerberg effectively sold each Facebook user – i.e. you – for $117. | |
> > | That look at the facts
is too quick. It doesn't provide context and it isn't thorough.
With a revenue one tenth that of Google, what did it earn, not take
in, per customer? That princely $4.35, as you could have heard me
pointing out in my classroom and on the net last spring, represents
real profit on operations of about $0.36/user or so. And this on the
basis of a display advertising business which does not transfer well
to the mobile screen, as everyone began realizing the minute after the big
sell was over, but which once again you could have heard in my
classroom last spring for free. | | According to its S-1, Facebook derived 85% of its 2011 revenue from advertising. Big deal, right? All Facebook does is let advertisers pay to post ads on its site. Wrong. Facebook’s data gold mine allows it to divide its user base into numerous demographic and preference packages which it then offers to advertisers. Everything you “like” or view is now going to be packaged and sold; however, this doesn’t just affect your experience. This information gathered and sold to advertisers will also in turn grant them more information about your “friends,” thus filling up their screens with more ads. | |
< < | For a site that was built to make the world more open and connected, it feels like Facebook has sold out. Rather than a contact list of friends, families, and communities, it has become a marketplace where Zuckerberg and advertisers plot on how to extract value and commercial gain from selling and buying you. Even comical is the fact that while Facebook lists as one of its risk factors the possibility that hackers could steal the information it has, it fails to identify that it is in the same business of the hackers: stealing information and profiting from its obtainment. The privacy and security measures Facebook has taken are merely a tool to safeguard its profits by reducing competitors’ ability to obtain your information, and not to safeguard you, the user. | > > | You are overlooking the
whole story, which is data-mining. These "demographic and preference
packages" you are talking about are primitive history now.
For a site that was built to make the world more open and connected, it feels like Facebook has sold out. Rather than a contact list of friends, families, and communities, it has become a marketplace where Zuckerberg and advertisers plot on how to extract value and commercial gain from selling and buying you.
Why are you confusing an
advertising slogan with a business entity's intentions? Facebook was
always what it is now, since it attracted the attention of the gang
running it along with Mr Zuckerberg.
Even comical is the fact that while Facebook lists as one of its risk factors the possibility that hackers could steal the information it has, it fails to identify that it is in the same business of the hackers: stealing information and profiting from its obtainment. The privacy and security measures Facebook has taken are merely a tool to safeguard its profits by reducing competitors’ ability to obtain your information, and not to safeguard you, the user.
No. Facebook's security
serves far more important purposes. They may not be germane to your
analysis, but that doesn't excuse you from thinking about them and
refraining from misleading statements.
Zuckerberg has attempted to portray himself as the carefree Gen Y type, and attempted to portray his book of your information as nothing more than an innocent medium to connect with others.
"Has been portrayed."
Neither the image of Mr Zuckerberg nor the image of Facebook has been
or is being managed by him. Why do you perform financial modeling in
order to find out what something is worth, but resort to simplifying
personalization in order to explain the behavior of a complex social
organism?
This is an image he has attempted to maintain while he made billions by selling your information. | | | |
< < | Zuckerberg has attempted to portray himself as the carefree Gen Y type, and attempted to portray his book of your information as nothing more than an innocent medium to connect with others. This is an image he has attempted to maintain while he made billions by selling your information. Zuckerberg made billions, the Wall Street fat cats got fatter, and businesses worldwide now have the ability to know your life as well as you know yourself. It seems like the only group not getting a cut of this $117 is the people who provide, and by right own, the very material being sold. | > > | Are you sure that's what
has happened? Despite Facebook's denials? On what evidence?
Zuckerberg made billions, the Wall Street fat cats got fatter, and businesses worldwide now have the ability to know your life as well as you know yourself.
That's not a very good
way to summarize what big data and the data-mining of personal
information accomplishes.
It seems like the only group not getting a cut of this $117 is the people who provide, and by right own, the very material being sold.
Are you now satisfied
to reduce the issues you have raised yourself to the question of
whether people are getting paid? | | I propose that Facebook’s worth is derived from its user base. Why then should they not share in the wealth that is being reaped from it? As the owners and contributors of the information sold, Facebook users should share in the benefit produced by their exploitation, and not just by receiving more narrowly tailored advertisements. | |
> > | You think the proper
discussion is about the users' share of the $0.36/year the owners of
Facebook are making on each one of them? | | So how do we get it? We could petition Facebook, but seeing as how Zuckerberg is the majority shareholder no action can be taken by Facebook without his approval. And I don’t see him as being interested in giving anything back to the people he took it from, since it was Zuckerberg who eventually decided to sell out to the capitalist ideology and tarnish the at once potentially pure medium of exchange and expression that Facebook represented. | |
< < | But wait, don’t we have privacy laws? Of course, that must be the way. However, because of the fine print you acknowledged when signing up for Facebook, you have no rights to stop them from any of this. In fact, you explicitly approved the sale of your information and have effectively sold yourself, or at least your digital self, into slavery. You are a slave to Facebook. You toil in the digital data mines adding further value to them through your posts and likes, and Facebook, your master, reaps the benefits without paying you any wage. Maybe next time you see one of those agreements you should read it. You might be surprised by what you find. | > > | Bollocks. What evidence
have you that Facebook was ever anything other than what it is now?
What betrayal are you talking about?
But wait, don’t we have privacy laws? Of course, that must be the way. However, because of the fine print you acknowledged when signing up for Facebook, you have no rights to stop them from any of this. In fact, you explicitly approved the sale of your information and have effectively sold yourself, or at least your digital self, into slavery.
This is not true.
Didn't you check any of this?
You are a slave to Facebook. You toil in the digital data mines adding further value to them through your posts and likes, and Facebook, your master, reaps the benefits without paying you any wage. Maybe next time you see one of those agreements you should read it. You might be surprised by what you find.
Did you read it? Where
did you find what you claim is there? Wouldn't it have been a good
idea to link to this language? You didn't
just plain make it up, did you?
| | What about a boycott of Facebook? Maybe we could just go back to using MySpace? . This time let’s just refuse to authorize the new site to steal our information? Sure, this is at least hypothetically possible. Of course, it doesn’t address the injustice that Zuckerberg has inflicted on users for his own pecuniary gain. | |
< < | Sadly, it seems that there are currently no adequate routes to address the crimes being committed by Zuckerberg. In fact, the very entity we constructed to protect us from injustices such as this – the government – has explicitly allowed Facebook and other companies set up to launder money derived from sales of stolen information to go forward with these acts unpunished. | > > | Sadly, it seems that there are currently no adequate routes to address the crimes being committed by Zuckerberg.
What crime are you now
talking about? The crime of giving you the lousy end of a bad
bargain? Even if the bargain were what you say it is, which it
isn't, why would that be a crime?
In fact, the very entity we constructed to protect us from injustices such as this – the government – has explicitly allowed Facebook and other companies set up to launder money derived from sales of stolen information to go forward with these acts unpunished.
What stolen information?
What money laundering? You're studying to be a lawyer. You have to
be responsible in your use of legal language to describe public
actors and actions. | | So back to our question: how did the wizards of Wall Street reach a $100 billion valuation? They reached such a valuation through the realization of what Facebook is: a theft. And theft has pretty good margins. Wall Street, being familiar with such improper shifts of wealth, saw the value that this scheme represented. Further, having the government in their pocket, Wall Street realized that this was a scheme that could be perpetuated indefinitely with little resistance from the users who were too blind or too unconcerned to rise up against such an injustice. | |
> > | The only problem with
this whole explanation, apart from its wild irresponsibility and
broad departure from fact, is that Facebook doesn't make any serious
money. So the "it's worth what it's worth because it's the proceeds
of theft" position is unfortunately ridiculous: really good theft is
much more profitable than Facebook. You've made a story of stock
promotion, which isn't important, obscure the story of how Facebook's
business and other institutional relations really work.
| | So will we, the users, the victims of Facebook, ever be made whole from the theft and exploitation of our personal lives and activities? Let’s just say I wouldn’t keep checking your mailbox for any checks. | |
> > | Let's just say that
doesn't seem to me to be a very important statement, because it
doesn't capture any idea about Facebook that people can use to
understand the issues of privacy for them in their daily lives. You
haven't analyzed Facebook correctly, because you haven't made either
the financial inquiry or the legal inquiry that the situation called
for: you have given up too early on both counts, and in some cases
seriously mislead both yourself and your readers. Nor have you
explained anything about privacy as people in their lives really
encounter the threats. You haven't identified who holds data, who
sells, trades in, or reprocesses data, or even what the Internet
contribution to the personal data industry is, beyond Facebook, which
is just one firm. You haven't explained what is done with the data,
or why individuals might or should care. You've thrown words like
slavery around, but you haven't made the slightest attempt to justify
them in any but metaphorical terms. You have linked nothing,
acquainted no reader with any materials or thinkers that would help
them to evaluate your ideas. You've conveyed the impression that
Facebook is a unique problem, and that if it were paying people some
tiny sliver of its infinitesimal profits that even this unique problem
would magically not matter anymore.
It seems to me that no effort of self-criticism has gone into this
version. Too many issues are left untouched for a really scrupulous
and hard-eyed self-evaluation to have occurred. One doesn't have to
be an outside reader to see where claims are made that need checking,
where legal terms of art are applied to conduct that in no way is
shown to fall within the relevant legal categories, where inflammatory
characterizations are applied to the behavior of a single business
entity that is not yet successfully distinguished from entities in
closely-equivalent or interoperating businesses.
The route to improvement is that exacting assessment of every word in
every sentence of the existing draft. Factual claims should be
tracked down and carefully-selected evaluated sources linked or cited.
Legal conclusions or terms of art indicating legal conclusions should
be offered with a reasonable basis for factual belief and legal
assertion. I was taught when a young man that a lawyer's public
statements on professional subjects should meet Rule 11 standards, and
I think that's sound advice. That process will, I think, surface most
of the issues with the analysis I have indicated in my questions,
along with others I needn't be so tedious as to suggest.
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MatthewGriffinCashiaFirstPaper 1 - 14 Oct 2012 - Main.MatthewGriffinCashia
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META TOPICPARENT | name="FirstPaper" |
Facebook: $38/share, $117/user
-- By MatthewGriffinCashia - 14 Oct 2012
At the time of its IPO, Facebook was valued at $100 billion. This resulted in an offering price of $38/share. After building financial models and compiling comparable company analyses I was unable to come anywhere close to such a valuation. Nor has management – i.e. Zuckerberg – made any satisfactory projections as to where growth will come from. So why have the gurus of Wall Street deemed this medium for social interaction to be of such worth?
Let’s take a quick look at the facts. According to its S-1, Facebook had 850 million monthly active users at the end of 2011. With annual revenue of $3.7 billion, this equates to an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $4.35. ARPU and Facebook’s IPO price are constantly being flaunted and discussed by Zuckerberg and the media; however, neither Zuckerberg nor the media ever mention an even more important number: $117. What does this $117 represent? Well, based on Facebook’s valuation, Zuckerberg effectively sold each Facebook user – i.e. you – for $117.
According to its S-1, Facebook derived 85% of its 2011 revenue from advertising. Big deal, right? All Facebook does is let advertisers pay to post ads on its site. Wrong. Facebook’s data gold mine allows it to divide its user base into numerous demographic and preference packages which it then offers to advertisers. Everything you “like” or view is now going to be packaged and sold; however, this doesn’t just affect your experience. This information gathered and sold to advertisers will also in turn grant them more information about your “friends,” thus filling up their screens with more ads.
For a site that was built to make the world more open and connected, it feels like Facebook has sold out. Rather than a contact list of friends, families, and communities, it has become a marketplace where Zuckerberg and advertisers plot on how to extract value and commercial gain from selling and buying you. Even comical is the fact that while Facebook lists as one of its risk factors the possibility that hackers could steal the information it has, it fails to identify that it is in the same business of the hackers: stealing information and profiting from its obtainment. The privacy and security measures Facebook has taken are merely a tool to safeguard its profits by reducing competitors’ ability to obtain your information, and not to safeguard you, the user.
Zuckerberg has attempted to portray himself as the carefree Gen Y type, and attempted to portray his book of your information as nothing more than an innocent medium to connect with others. This is an image he has attempted to maintain while he made billions by selling your information. Zuckerberg made billions, the Wall Street fat cats got fatter, and businesses worldwide now have the ability to know your life as well as you know yourself. It seems like the only group not getting a cut of this $117 is the people who provide, and by right own, the very material being sold.
I propose that Facebook’s worth is derived from its user base. Why then should they not share in the wealth that is being reaped from it? As the owners and contributors of the information sold, Facebook users should share in the benefit produced by their exploitation, and not just by receiving more narrowly tailored advertisements.
So how do we get it? We could petition Facebook, but seeing as how Zuckerberg is the majority shareholder no action can be taken by Facebook without his approval. And I don’t see him as being interested in giving anything back to the people he took it from, since it was Zuckerberg who eventually decided to sell out to the capitalist ideology and tarnish the at once potentially pure medium of exchange and expression that Facebook represented.
But wait, don’t we have privacy laws? Of course, that must be the way. However, because of the fine print you acknowledged when signing up for Facebook, you have no rights to stop them from any of this. In fact, you explicitly approved the sale of your information and have effectively sold yourself, or at least your digital self, into slavery. You are a slave to Facebook. You toil in the digital data mines adding further value to them through your posts and likes, and Facebook, your master, reaps the benefits without paying you any wage. Maybe next time you see one of those agreements you should read it. You might be surprised by what you find.
What about a boycott of Facebook? Maybe we could just go back to using MySpace? . This time let’s just refuse to authorize the new site to steal our information? Sure, this is at least hypothetically possible. Of course, it doesn’t address the injustice that Zuckerberg has inflicted on users for his own pecuniary gain.
Sadly, it seems that there are currently no adequate routes to address the crimes being committed by Zuckerberg. In fact, the very entity we constructed to protect us from injustices such as this – the government – has explicitly allowed Facebook and other companies set up to launder money derived from sales of stolen information to go forward with these acts unpunished.
So back to our question: how did the wizards of Wall Street reach a $100 billion valuation? They reached such a valuation through the realization of what Facebook is: a theft. And theft has pretty good margins. Wall Street, being familiar with such improper shifts of wealth, saw the value that this scheme represented. Further, having the government in their pocket, Wall Street realized that this was a scheme that could be perpetuated indefinitely with little resistance from the users who were too blind or too unconcerned to rise up against such an injustice.
So will we, the users, the victims of Facebook, ever be made whole from the theft and exploitation of our personal lives and activities? Let’s just say I wouldn’t keep checking your mailbox for any checks. |
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